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May 3, 2008

In This Issue...

2008 Kentucky Derby (Sour)Mash-Up

It'll be a good year for the auxiliary starting gate, or so we hope.

Our first annual "On-Line at The Short-Line Kentucky Derby SuperConsesnsus™" finds the 2008 Kentucky Derby (134) superfecta slots all accounted for by horses who'll be breaking from posts 15 and higher.

SuperConsensus selection #16 Denis of Cork grabbed top honours on the basis of being ranked on first on the Fast Capper 2008 Betting Line while being second-best on the All-In-One V6 Betting Line and The Handy Capper Betting Line. That gave 'Denis the best average ranking among the three programs, at 1.7.

Morning-line favorite #20 Big Brown came in second in the polling, having actually scored tops on both V6 and THC but managing only fourth on the FC. 'Brown's average ranking was 2.0.

Rounding out the top five were #15 Adriano (3.3 average ranking), #19 Gayego (4.3) and #14 Monba (also 4.3).

Following are the component rankings for each horse, in post-position order:

#1 Cool Coal Man (V6: 16, THC: 19, FC: 17, Avg. 17.3)

#2 Tale of Ekati (V6: 12, THC: 7, FC: 13, Avg. 10.7)

#3 Anak Nakal (V6: 18, THC: 12, FC: 20, Avg. 16.7)

#4 Court Vision (V6: 19, THC: 16, FC: 19, Avg. 18.0)

#5 Eight Belles (V6: 8, THC: 14, FC: 7, Avg. 9.7)

#6 Z Fortune (V6: 7, THC: 9, FC: 11, Avg. 9.0)

#7 Big Truck (V6: 20, THC: 11, FC: 8, Avg. 13.0)

#8 Visionaire (V6: 13, THC: 4, FC: 9, Avg. 8.7)

#9 Pyro (V6: 10, THC: 15, FC: 15, Avg. 13.3)

#10 Colonel John (V6: 6, THC: 20, FC: 12, Avg. 12.7)

#11 Z Humor (V6: 15, THC: 13, FC: 18, Avg. 15.3)

#12 Smooth Air (V6: 11, THC: 10, FC: 10, Avg. 10.3)

#13 Bob Black Jack (V6: 17, THC: 18, FC: 14, Avg. 16.3)

#14 Monba (V6: 5, THC: 3, FC: 5, Avg. 4.3)

#15 Adriano (V6: 3, THC: 5, FC: 2, Avg. 3.3)

#16 Denis of Cork (V6: 2, THC: 2, FC: 1, Avg. 1.7)

#17 Cowboy Cal (V6: 9, THC: 8, FC: 6, Avg. 7.7)

#18 Recapturetheglory (V6: 14, THC: 17, FC: 16, Avg. 15.7)

#19 Gayego (V6: 4, THC: 6, FC: 3, Avg. 4.3)

#20 Big Brown (V6: 1, THC: 1, FC: 4, Avg. 2.0)

Predicted order of finish (consensus average):

1. #16 Denis of Cork (1.7)
2. #20 Big Brown (2.0)
3. #15 Adriano (3.3)
4. #19 Gayego (4.3)
5. #14 Monba (4.3)
6. #17 Cowboy Cal (7.7)
7. #8 Visionaire (8.7)
8. #6 Z Fortune (9.0)
9. #5 Eight Belles (9.7)
10. #12 Smooth Air (10.3)
11. #2 Tale of Ekati (10.7)
12. #10 Colonel John (12.7)
13. #7 Big Truck (13.0)
14. #9 Pyro (13.3)
15. #11 Z Humor (15.3)
16. #18 Recapturetheglory (15.7)
17. #13 Bob Black Jack (16.3)
18. #3 Anak Nakal (16.7)
19. #1 Cool Coal Man (17.3)
20. #4 Court Vision (18.0)

Sketches

That takes care of the left-brain. The right-brain won't abide by it. It wants a story. It wants a picture. Here, right-brain. Here, right-brain. Once more in post-position order...

#1 Cool Coal Man — Can't see it happening. The consensus fails to find anything special here. The comparable between him and 'Brown is condemning: nearly 10 lengths slower at the Gulfstream Park 1 1/8m distance. Of course, there's trainer Zito, but usually his winning runners have shown a little more in the run-in to the big race.

#2 Tale of Ekati — Maybe a top-half finish, or maybe more if somehow he decides to run his eyeballs out and the others off their hooves. That's always a threat, but hard to imagine if the track is not souped-up. Modern wire Derbies are for guys who also have tangible late-ability. Probably not this guy. Definitely a pace factor, a cheap thrill for some.

#3 Anak Nakal — The second Zito closed some ground in the Wood. Wins only when ignored in the wagering, and that's what he'll be at 30-1 on the morning line.

#4 Court Vision — Just as some lucky horse will finish first, one unlucky foal of 2005 will have to claim the opposite number, behind all the others. 'Court is one of the ones on that dubious score. In trouble when the highest score in the V6 Factor Summary array is 83.

#5 Eight Belles — Not so snarky here, not so quick to dismiss. After all, she projects to have your fastest final time in the Derby field! That's off the fantastic mile in the Mount Washington at Oaklawn, over a track that was quite slow. Connections are not synonymous with Triple Crown, but you have to start somewhere. Top-half finish likely, perhaps more!

#6 Z Fortune — Consensus figures him right there with 'Belles in terms of the average ranking. He looked good closing, but 'Belle's race was contested under more-trying conditions. Gets a good score in that all-important hot-trainer category.

#7 Big Truck — Tries to keep up early, but this group is tough (ya think?) and his late-punch seems lacking. There are some who would toss him merely for an arbitrary 50-1 morning line.

#8 Visionaire — Tabbed seventh on the consensus, and it cannot be on the basis of a pedestrian final-time projection. Pace in spades, and the kicker is that his is the only paceline selected from an off (in his case, sloppy) track. Hmmmm. First two calls are well within his grasp, but it'll take extraordinary help for him to run it all the way in front to the wire.

#9 Pyro — You know he's going to be making that sustained looping move, the patented, visually exciting run that Derby winners seem to need to get there. Two furlongs left, and he'll still need to pass a bunch of them. If the pace wilts, he's one who benefits mightily. One of the handful in here who can go sub-24 in the last quarter-mile, but the programs just don't like him the way conventional handicapping might. We'll see.

#10 Colonel John — Tough to swallow at 4-1 on the morning line. Could be last into the far turn, and that cannot be that good a thing. If he tries to move sooner, he risks being out of his element, spent before the eighth-pole. Another sub-24 finisher, but will too much of it have slipped away well before that? Note: The Handy Capper's harsh 20th-and-last-place ranking is based on emphasizing early-speed and pace measures, while totally shutting off the late-speed scenarios. Still, if you give the 'Colonel a THC ranking of 12th (in line with FC), his average goes down slightly, but not much: instead of struggling for 12th, he's in for 10th.

#11 Z Humor — Should lose the battle of the Z's in this race. One of many early-speed wannabes in this one, and he just doesn't appear to have the late-race oomph to do it. When the Best of Similar paceline scheme finds one that's five lengths behind the race winner, it's trouble.

#12 Smooth Air — Livin' the dream in the wake of Big Brown in the Fla. Derby, for sure. A nondescript array on the Factor Summary, but might sneak into a position to beat half the field.

#13 Bob Black Jack — Not difficult to see him in the bottom three (damn, that "American Idol" is pervasive!) or four. Seems like a displaced frontrunner in here, and that means he could be losing his way through the field rapidly.

#14 Monba — Could he really hit the quintafecta? Bet on it! He projects to have the right sort of style for this. Not crazy early, but in the firing line around the far turn and into the homestretch. He probably lacks the winning punch late, but having secured a good spot in the lane can maintain it for the with-honour placings.

#15 Adriano — Into the auxiliary gate now, and Adriano is a 30-1 morning-line horse that could have a sho(u)t. After Eight Belles, take a guess which Derby 134 runner has the fastest projected time. Yup. You guessed it. Mr. Adriano, Esq. Like him to settle into stride past the wire the first time, ease into the clubhouse turn and midway down the backstretch before Prado says it's go-time (damn that "American Idol" again!).

#16 Denis of Cork — The paceline had to go back to the Southwest Mile at Oaklawn, a monster closing rush. A projected final time competitive with the likes of Big Brown, Colonel John and Gayego is not too shabby. The ability is there; will the trip and luck factors also be with him? Those things will need to break his way, but then they'll also need to do that for the others. In short, don't sell him short. Clearly, the programs like his balance — he's one of only three in here who score 90 or above in the pace constructs of Ability Time, Balance Time and Closing Time.

#17 Cowboy Cal — A chance here for him to hit the super-duper. Maybe a tad eager early, but if he gets into a good contending position at the top of the lane, he seems capable of maintaining his spot or even passing one or two down the stretch.

#18 Recapturetheglory — Key members of the professional staff here always will be in awe of Mr. Louie Roussel III; they cannot forget the countless Sunday evenings in which they witnessed him receive the sacrament of Holy Communion in the Holy Name of Jesus Church on the campus of Loyola Univ. along St. Charles Ave. in New Orleans — just like any other parishioner! They never can cease in their admiration of his training job with Risen Star (yes, the name had to be spiritual), for trainer and horse's utter dismantling of Winning Colors in both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes of 1988, both as nonfavorites. Risen Star should have been a Triple Crown champion! Damn that awful post-draw in the Derby! Oh, well. Good Ill. Derby for 'Glory, but he seems like just one more displaced frontrunner in this field.

#19 Gaygeo — Won the Ark. Derby on top all the way, but he does possess some versatility. After letting things settle down early, he very well could be your leader out of the turn and into the long Churchill homestretch! He may be somewhat shaky vis-a-vis some of these crazy late-runners, but it's hard to see him folding completely. An in-the-money finish looks quite strong here.

#20 Big Brown — Your morning-line favorite, and a definite contender. His projected final time, however, is not exceptional in this group. Moreover, a sparkling projected opening-half-mile here could easily be negated by the tall order of having to outbreak no fewer than 19 others to make the lead going into the clubhouse turn. Hard to do, hard to do. Will being forced to run that strenuously early take something out of him? Remember, the optimal projected final-time was competitive, not superior.

Betchas

Big Brown makes obvious sense, but that's the operative word: "obvious." Can you stomach 3-1 to beat 19 other finely tuned and all-out competitors? After all, not even the insanely talented and prohibitively favored Kenneth Jennings could hold off godhead Bradford Rutter in the Jeopardy! Ultimate Tournament of Champions!

Rather, it looks like longshot straight wagers on #16 Denis of Cork, #15 Adriano and #19 Gayego. A cold box with those three, and also saved underneath #20 Big Brown. Finally, trizacatas and super-dupers and even quintafectas involving our top seven SuperConsensus™ finishers.

Whatever route you take, regardless of how many mint juleps you toss back (but hopefully not up), as always, best wishes for a prosperous Saturday and, of course, a spectacular 2008 Kentucky Derby.

P.S. This is a racing holiday, the Kentucky Derby, but the world tends to appreciate that Cal Ripken Jr. lunchpail ethos, bringing the hardhat to work day in and day out. When the hoopla dies down and you want to play the races during any of the other 364 dates of the year on the North American racing calendar, please come visit us again, especially our acclaimed Pick of the Day page and our Online Store jam-packed with books, videos, softwares and many other goodies for winners like you.

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